America Chose Hard Mode?
Updated 12/11/2024
Well, you saw the analysis of what a Trump administration would look like for restaurateurs, but now that he’s starting to nominate people into his cabinet we can have a clearer picture if the analysis will come true.
Below, we’ll keep track of the nominees that will affect us and give an opinion:
National Labor Relations Board (NLRB): Biden’s nominee has been blocked which leaves Trump in complete control during his whole term, which otherwise only would have been from 2026-2028 (you can thank Manchin and Sinema).
What this means: Labor regulation is projected to be more relaxed and business friendly.
Interest Rates: Jerome Powell says he won’t leave even if Trump asks. Trump backed down and says he’ll let Powell serve his term out.
What this means: Trump won’t have his way with manipulating interest rates and will let the adults continue steering our delicate economy.
Tariffs: Bad news on this one. He’s doubling down and has already threatened Mexico, Canada, and China. Mexico is the largest trading partner of the U.S. which could send shockwaves through our economy - not just our restaurants. In his last administration he did it with China which resulted in having to bail out American farmers to the tune of $27 billion. Doing it across the board and at higher rates (uniform 60% vs varying 8-30%) would exponentially increase the fallout.
What this means: Expect higher cost of goods sold from products coming in from Mexico, Canada, China. Tequila, Avocados, Paper products, just to name a few important ones for us.
Deportations: Tom Homan has been nominated as his “Border Czar”. Tom has not shied away from confirming mass deportations.
Kristi Noem has been nominated to lead Homeland Security. She has stressed her support for Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement.
What his means: Spooked employees, even those on valid Visas. Decreased labor availability. Hostility towards “immigrants” (brown people, whether they’re citizens, residents, documented or not).
We will see what the appetite of Congress is in confirming and supporting the most extreme initiatives and policies.
I’ll keep this list updated as nominees are declared and candidates are confirmed.
Suerte!